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Insightful Projection For The Dreaded
Covid19 Corona Virus In Jamaica

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corona_virus_in_jamaica_cases_projectionCorona Virus In Jamaica Projection

I'm going to bet that you (like many others) missed the Prime Minister's presentation yesterday?

At least the part of it that spoke about the anticipated growth path of the Coronavirus in Jamaica.

I stand corrected, but why do I say so?
Because I don't hear much about it in mainstream media!

The Prime Minister outlined where Jamaica is now, and placed us in a regional and global context.

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He showed a number of graphs:

  1. One showing new cases vs accumulation of cases
  2. Another showing where we are relative to other countries, at cases per hundred thousand, thus equalizing for population, and the much talked about
  3. 'Flattening the curve' graph.

Relative to #2 above, four countries were included:

  1. Panama
  2. Dominican Republic 
  3. Jamaica, as well as 
  4. Singapore

Why Singapore?

Because according to him, Singapore implemented various controlled measures and approaches similar to what Jamaica has taken.

He compared them all at Day 16; meaning days after the first case was confirmed (see above)

You'll note that Panama had 443 after 16 days while Jamaica had 26.

According to him, like Singapore, Jamaica did not adopt a total lockdown strategy but  progressively implement measures based on the confirmed cases and the risk factors.

But if that holds true, at Day 63 (after the first case on March 10), does it mean that Jamaica could be at 641 cases in 63 days (May 12)?

Number three above, the 'Flattening Of The Curve' graph, was particularly interesting to me though!  It makes a lot of sense.

Flattening The Curve


The idea is that, unlike Dominica and Panama, we don't want to have a massive increase, as, not only will it create further panic, the cases will totally overwhelm the health and social systems, causing a whole set of other issues!

If the above also holds true, we could see...

  • the peak at about 7 weeks (end of April), 
  • and then it should start to decline, almost dissipating by June 2 (Reggae Sumfest organizers and patrons would be singing the happy song)

My takeaway, certainly from this graph and the one showing comparison with Singapore, is that, although there will likely be more increases, it CAN remain manageable, which means we could return to normalcy sooner - than later.

But The Warning!

The Prime Minister however warned that the cases will rise if the public does not change behaviour, calling out the 'weak fence' people who will cause many others to get ill.

He also pointed out that, in a large part, us returning to normalcy also rest on what is happening around us, including the USA, which is one of our largest trading partner.

It does make a lot of sense; no point reopening tourist travel, for example, if the US is still struggling with their cases.

And The Economy?

He emphasised that the strategy ('balancing act') was deliberate to ensure that economic activity continues while we take care of the health of our citizens.

He also cautioned that the special relief and stimulus packages that were announced earlier rests on the projection that some economic activity will continue - and taxes are paid.

In the end, he reiterated that a total lockdown is not off the cards, it will certainly be implemented if the situation warrants it.

Watch Video: Here's The Complete Presentation

..on JIS' Youtube channel.

But to get the essence of it, jump directly to 51:28 and hear him address the projection of corona virus in Jamaica directly.

And just before you share this with your friends, quick question..

What do you take from this presentation?
I'd love to hear! Share your feedback in the comments below.

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